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There’s a huge gender gap that, if it’s maintained, will cost Joe Biden the 2024 election.
The raw numbers tell only part of the story. In 2020, 18-34-year-old voters favored Joe Biden 60-36%, “helping to give him a 4.46-point victory among all voters, 51.31 percent to 46.85 percent,” according to Thomas Edsall writing in the New York Times.
Thisyear,pollsarealloverthemap,buttotakeonepollbyNBC,Trumpactuallyleadsamongyoungvoters43-42%.
Obviously,thatspellsdoomforBidenifthenumbershold.ButwhatmakestheabandonmentbyyoungpeoplesoworryingforDemocratsisthatwhileyoungwomen’ssupportforDemocratshasrisenoverthelastdecade,Democraticsupportbyyoungmenhasfallenoffacliff.
Trackingthepartisanidentificationandideologyof18-to-34-year-olds,theMcInturffanalysesshowthatfrom2012to2023,womenbecameincreasinglyDemocratic,goingfrom55percentidentifyingasDemocraticand29percentRepublicanin2012to60and22in2023.Theshiftwasevenmorestrikinginthecaseofideology,goingfrom32percentliberaland29percentconservativeto51percentliberaland17percentc
