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Earlier this month, the media burst with joy when historian Allan Lichtman offered the latest update to his election prediction model, the “Keys to the White House.” According to Lichtman, this model, which has correctly forecasted every election outcome since 1984, showed that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.
Theproblemwithhismodelwasthatmanyofthekeysaresubjective,andwhenIreassessedthem,ittooknoefforttoshowthathismodelactuallypredictsaTrumpvictory.
OnThursday,anotherelectionforecastersaidKamalaHarriswouldwininalandslide.
NorthwesternUniversitydatascientistThomasMillersaidthatHarriswillknockTrumpinalandslideelection,tellingFortuneMagazine:‘It’sgonefromadrasticlandslideinTrump’sdirectiontoadrasticlandslideforHarris’.
Millerfirstgainedattentionafterheaccuratelypredictedthe2020presidentialelectionbyunconventionallyusingbettingmarketsratherthantraditionalpollstoforecasttheoutcome.
Heachievedthisbydevelopingamodel,whichisbasedon16presidentialelections,thatconvertedbettingpricesintothepopularv
