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Republicans have known for years that the 2024 election would be a good one for them. After the 2022 midterm contests, Democrats and independents who caucus with them held 51 seats to the GOP’s 49. But Republicans are facing an expansive map in 2024 with eight contested races in blue and purple states with only two competitive Republican seats up for grabs.
Sothequestionhasneverbeen,“WilltheGOPwinamajorityintheSenate?”Thequestionhasalwaysbeen,“Howbigwillthatmajorityendupbeing?”
DemocratshavealreadywrittenoffWestVirginia,whereJoeManchinisretiring.TrumpwonWestVirginiabynearly40pointsin2020andthestate’spopularRepublicangovernor,JimJustice,appearsreadytocoasttovictory.
Elsewhere,thereareseveralSenateraceswheretheGOPisaheadorinstrikingdistance.InthepresidentialbattlegroundsofMichigan,Pennsylvania,NevadaandWisconsin,Democraticincumbentsarebarelyhangingon.InMontana,GOPRep.TimSheehyiscomfortablyaheadofincumbentDemocratJonTesterbyninepoints,accordingtothelatestSiennaCollegebattlegroundpoll.
ThatsamepollshowstwoDe