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Nate Silver is a statistical expert and a professional poker player. His political prognostications are less than stellar, however, and should be viewed skeptically.
SilvergivesDonaldTrumpa55%chanceofwinningtheelection.Heclaimsthat’shis“gutfeeling”andnotbasedonanystatisticalevidence.Andhesaysthatthere’snostatisticalevidencethatTrumphaspickedupanymomentumandanypollingresultsthatsaysoare“questionable.”
“Pollsterswere‘herding’theirnumbers,orusingpastresultstoaffectcurrentones,tokeepVicePresidentHarrisandformerPresidentTrumptowithinapointortwoofeachothereachtime”reportstheNewYorkPost.
“Ikindoftrustpollstersless,”Silversaidonhispodcast,name-checkingEmersonCollege.“Theyall,everytimeapollster[says]‘Oh,everystateisjustplus-one,everysinglestate’satie,’No!You’ref***kingherding!You’recheating!You’recheating!”Hefumed.
Silvermakesaninterestingpoint.The800likelyvotersamplesizeofrespondentsismorethanadequate.Sowhyarethenumbersinmostofthes
