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Nearly 80 million early votes have now been cast in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s extremely close: Registered Democrats comprised 41% of mail-in (or in-person early voting), 39% were registered Republicans, and 20% were independent.
That’sanextremelynarrowDemocraticedgeandonewithanimportantcaveat:Wedon’tknowiftheseRepublicansorDemocratsvotedstraightticket.IfTrumpismorepopularwithRepublicansthanKamalaHarrisiswithDemocrats,hecouldactuallyholdaslightedgerightnow.Andwithoutasizablepre-ElectionDayadvantage,theDemocratsaretoast.
(However,ifyoustillhavefaithintheaccuracyofmediapolls,theirlatestdatahasRepublicansmorelikelytobreakforHarristhantheotherwayaround.Notapromisingomenatallifyoubelievethem.)
Butinsheernumbers,48%ofAmericanadultsnowidentifyasRepublican(orGOP-leaning),andjust45%forDemocrats.Infact,Democraticpartyidentificationisnowatanall-timelow.There’sasmalleruniverseofDemocrats.
That’scriticalbecauseDemocrats’votingpatternsdifferfromRepublicans:In2020,58%ofBidensupportersvotedviamail-inball
