Democrats grapple with choice of progressive vs. centrist

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Democrats are grappling with an existential question as the 2028 Democratic primary comes into view: Is a centrist or progressive candidate best positioned to win not only the nomination, but also in November against the GOP?
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is increasingly being seen as the future of the party by Democrats who say she and other progressives, such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, represent the party’s energy.
These progressives are exciting the base, drawing large rallies and dominating the overall messaging coming from Democrats.
But others in the party insist a progressive would fail in a general election and that Democrats need a more centrist candidate in 2028, like Pete Buttigieg — the former secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration — or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
These candidates, their advocates say, can appeal to not only the base, but also to independents and Republicans critical to winning the general election.
“The loudest voices are on the progressive left, but I don’t know if that’s where the party is,” said Steve Schale, the prominent Democratic strategist who managed former President Obama’s Florida operation during the 2008 presidential campaign.
Schale echoes a number of operatives who have said since their party’s last defeat to President Trump that their standard-bearer will need to get through “southern states with large Black populations” during the primary and also states like Michigan in a general election.
“Voters there don’t sound like progressives in New York and Northern New Jersey,” he said.
At the same time, there are Democrats who say they could see someone like Ocasio-Cortez winning the nomination because she’s effectively addressing the issues on voters’ minds right now.
“You can see a world in which she or another progressive sweeps a bunch of states just by talking about the issues that matter to people including affordability,” said one Democratic donor. “I don’t agree with her, or with the progressive agenda, but I can very easily see that happening.”
Centrists, on the other hand, point to the wins in November by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who intentionally ran campaigns aimed not only at the base, but also beyond it. They also appealed to soft Republicans and independents.
Matt Bennett, the co-founder of the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way, said those races “tell us that to win in big complicated places and in tough races, voters are hungry for people who sound sensible to them, that don’t put them off and that don’t make them think this candidate is totally out of touch with their values.”
Bennett maintains that if there would have been a Mamdani-like candidate in those races, Democrats would have “gotten smoked.”
Looking back at the 2024 election, Bennett said voters viewed former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, as “being out of the mainstream and too far to the left.”
“And we just can’t have that,” he said.
In 2028, he argued, voters will be looking for one thing: Who can beat Vice President Vance?
“They’re going to be desperate to rid the country of this scourge of Trumpism,” he said.
The push-pull between the two sides reverberated this week as Axios reported that a new political group called Next American Era is emerging to shape national politics and expand moderate Democrats’ influence “at a time when progressives in the party are making an aggressive push for more power.”
The group’s president, former Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), told the outlet that Democrats have always been at their most successful when they’re talking about basic economic issues, such as jobs. Many Americans now believe that the system is “driven too much by fringe voices” in both the Democrat and Republican parties, she says.
A Gallup poll from last year showed that 45 percent of Democrats said the party should become more moderate, up from 34 percent in 2021. The survey showed that 29 percent of those polled said they wanted the party to move further left.
Democratic strategist Hyma Moore said the best candidate is one who can incorporate both ideological lanes to win.
“You’re going to need a little bit of both, and I think that’s what most of us would like to see,” Moore said, predicting that a Democratic ticket will likely see a moderate and a progressive champion.
In 2008, Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton underscored his ability to speak to both factions in the Democratic Party. He energized the base by opposing the Iraq war— a contrast to Clinton’s hawkish support. But he also won over moderates and independents with an emphasis on cutting middle-class taxes. He also showed a willingness to engage with Republicans.
The appeal to both sets of voters helped him transcend ideological lines.
“Progressives thought he was progressive,” Schale said. “Moderates thought he was moderate.”
Of course, that was nearly 20 years ago, and the Democratic Party continues to change.
So far, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been leading the pack of potential candidates in what is expected to be a crowded Democratic field.
Operatives have concluded Newsom would be a good contender because of his early positioning and his ability to go on offense against Republicans. Other potential candidates include Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
With a year to go until candidates decide whether to wade into the 2028 campaign, there is plenty of time for new faces to emerge and jump into the race. And those seemingly in front today could be afterthoughts in 2028.
Looking back at the 2016 presidential election, Bennett recalled how Republicans said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was the front-runner and would likely be the nominee. But in the end, Bush was out relatively early, and the nominee became Trump.
“You just don’t know who’s good at running for president until they do it,” he said.
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