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The Cook Political Report has moved the Senate race in Montana between Republican Tim Sheehy and three-term Democratic incumbent Jon Tester from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” If Sheehy can hang on and there are no surprises among other Republican incumbents running for re-election, the GOP will gain control of the Senate.
Democratsareatahugedisadvantage,havingtodefend23seatswhileRepublicansonlyhavetoprotect11.TheDemocratscurrentlycontroltheSenatebya51-49advantage,andwiththeretirementofSen.JoeManchin(I-W.Va.)inthereddeststateinthenationandtheprobabilityoftheMontanaseatfallingtotheGOP,theprospectsareverygoodforaRepublicantakeover.
TheHouseisadifferentstory.Houseracesalmostalwaysturnonlocalissuesandpersonalities.Thereareexceptionstothatrulewhennationalissuesplayarole.Butthere’snoburningnationalissuethatwouldnationalizethisHouseelection.
However,theGOPcurrentlyhasanuphillclimbtomaintainHousecontrol.Therearebetween16and20toss-upraces(dependingontheforecaster)withmorethanhalfbeingRepublicanincumbentsoropenR
