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Four years ago, the final pre-election poll of The New York Times had Biden at +9. Biden was ultimately credited with capturing 51.3% of the vote to Trump’s 46.8% — half that amount, just 4.5 points — so the “unbiased” Times “accidentally” doubled the actual margin.
It wasn’t a one-time thing.
The New York Times actually cut Trump’s margin in half in 2016 as well: In their final poll, they had Clinton +4. (The actual margin was just 2.1.)
So there’s a consistent track record of The New York Times inflating the margins to hurt Trump and benefit Democrats. In 2016, it had Clinton +4 (and overestimated her support). In 2020, it had Biden +9 (and overestimated his support.)
That’s the backdrop, so you can contextualize what the latest news truly means.
This morning, The New York Times released its final poll of the 2024 election. And according to this poll, nationally (not electorally), it’s now a dead heat. And when you factor in the third-party candidates, Trump is now +1.
